Daily Forex Analysis: EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | September 4, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate worse than expected but ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014).

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI disappointing. German and Spanish Retail Sales worse than expected. German Employment figures in stall and Italian Unemployment rate rises. Only CPI ticked up.

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected. U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected. Also U.S. CB Consumer Confidence was higher than expected (at its highest since March). Ahead of important Employment data from U.S. we think that sentiment for the USD will regain momentum as USD is heavily oversold and Nonfarm Payrolls can surprise in better.

German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.

As we expected, EURUSD fell down close to our first Support. Fake breakout of both 1.19 and 1.185 are going to be re-absorbed and we still are heavily overbought: we expect the re-test back to 1.1756.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1920 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1990
1st Support: 1.1856
2nd Support: 1.1756

 

EUR

Recent Facts:

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected

15th of August, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of August, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of August, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

31st of August, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Worse than Expected, CPI Better than Expected

1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

 

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected

8th of August, Job Openings
Better than Expected

10th of August, PPI
Worse than Expected

11th of August, U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

15th of August, U.S. Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of August, CB Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDP
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected

1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rate
Worse than Expected

1st of September, ISM Manufacturing
Better than Expected

 

Daily Forex Analysis: GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | September 4, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

UK Manufacturing PMI better than expected. Eyes on today UK Construction PMI.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate worse than expected. U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected. U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected. Also, ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014).

UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) on the downbeat. On the other hand, last U.S. Manufacturing and House Markets data were worse than expected but ahead of important Employment data from U.S. we think that sentiment for the USD will regain momentum as USD is heavily oversold and Nonfarm Payrolls can surprise in better.

Now we are on the Resistance in area 1.2978. The consolidation after the Support in area 1.283 has occurred and now we believe it has a very limited amount of left energy. So, eyes on the next re-test of 1.28, as we still are bearish until 1.27 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

 

GBP

Recent Facts:

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of August, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

3rd of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of August, Manufacturing Production
As Expected

15th of August, UK CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of August, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) Worse than Expected

1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Construction PMI

 

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

 

Daily Forex Analysis: AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | September 4, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Later, RBA will decide about Interest Rate and release the Statement.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate worse than expected but ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014).

Australian Manufacturing Index better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected. U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected.

North Korea claimed it tested a hydrogen bomb, drastically raising tensions with South Korea, Japan and the United States and also angering ally China. U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said “Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam or our allies will be met with a massive military response, a response both effective and overwhelming”.

As expected, AUDUSD fell below 0.7916 area. Now, we will first see consolidation moves around 0.7916. Only if 0.783 will be successfully violated again, then 0.7735 will be likely to be re-tested.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7980
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

 

AUD

Recent Facts:

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

 

USD

Recent Facts:

 

See above.