FX Analysis: EUR/USD

Daily Forex Analysis EUR/USD by SGT Markets | October 25, 2016

Weekly Trend: Oversold

1st Resistance: 1.0950

2nd Resistance: 1.0995

3rd Resistance: 1.1029

1st Support: 1.0870

2nd Support: 1.0840

 

 

EUR

 

Recent Facts:

 

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)

Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

 

28th of July, German Unemployment Change

Better than Expected.

 

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)

Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

 

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

 

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe

Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

 

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)

Slightly lower than Expected

 

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

Slightly worse than Expected

 

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

 

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI

German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

 

29th of September, German Unemployment

Worse than Expected

 

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)

Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

 

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance

Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

 

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference

ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

 

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

Eyes on today release: ECB President Mario Draghi Speech

 

 

USD

 

Recent Facts:

 

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech

Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

 

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales

Both better than Expected

 

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls

Worse than Expected

 

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

 

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

 

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Higher than Expected

 

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision

The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

 

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence

Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

 

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches

Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected

Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

 

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales

GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

 

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

 

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

 

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes

Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

 

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech

Retail Sales slightly better than Expected

Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

 

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)

Slightly Worse than Expected

 

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts

Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

 

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales

Better than Expected

 

FX Analysis: GBP/USD

Daily Forex Analysis GBP/USD by SGT Markets | October 25, 2016

Weekly Trend: Oversold

1st Resistance: 1.2320

2nd Resistance: 1.2430

1st Support: 1.2169

2nd Support: 1.1968

 

 

GBP

 

Recent Facts:

 

22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)

Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years

 

27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)

Better than Expected

 

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)

Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

 

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)

Slightly Worse than Expected

 

9th of August, Trade Balance

Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

 

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)

Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

 

18th of August, UK Retail Sales

Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

 

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)

Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

 

5th of September, UK Services PMI

Better than Expected

 

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product

Pared the Expectations

 

4th of October, Construction PMI

Better than Expected

 

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech

Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

 

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)

Higher than Expected

 

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)

Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected

Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

 

20th of October, Retail Sales

Worse than Expected

 

Eyes on today release: Bank of England Gov Carney Speech

 

 

USD

 

Recent Facts:

 

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech

Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

 

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales

Both better than Expected

 

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls

Worse than Expected

 

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

 

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

 

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Higher than Expected

 

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision

The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

 

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence

Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

 

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches

Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected

Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

 

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales

GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

 

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

 

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

 

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes

Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

 

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech

Retail Sales slightly better than Expected

Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

 

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)

Slightly Worse than Expected

 

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts

Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

 

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales

Better than Expected

 

 

 

FX Analysis: AUD/USD

Daily Forex Analysis AUD/USD by SGT Markets | October 25, 2016

Weekly Trend: Bullish

1st Resistance: 0.7660

2nd Resistance: 0.7735

1st Support: 0.7525

2nd Support: 0.7440

 

 

AUD

 

Recent Facts:

 

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting

Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

 

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

 

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

 

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)

Worse than Expected

 

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement

Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

 

18th of August, Employment Change

Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

 

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)

Worse than Expected

 

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure

Worse than Expected

 

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product

As Expected

 

15th of September, Employment Change

Worse than Expected

 

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting

Neutral stance

 

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit

New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

 

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement

Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

 

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)

Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction

Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

 

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy

In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

 

20th of October, Job Market Data

Worse than Expected

 

 

USD

 

Recent Facts:

 

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech

Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

 

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales

Both better than Expected

 

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls

Worse than Expected

 

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

 

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

 

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Higher than Expected

 

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision

The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

 

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence

Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

 

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches

Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected

Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

 

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales

GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

 

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

 

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

 

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes

Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

 

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech

Retail Sales slightly better than Expected

Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

 

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)

Slightly Worse than Expected

 

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts

Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

 

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales

Better than Expected