EUR/USD 

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | September 18, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Eyes on today Eurozone CPI data.
Increasing wages (under solid Employment Change figures) and improving Trade Balance are the latest good news for the EUR.
The greenback regained strength after Paul Ryan (U.S. House of Representatives Speaker) said that a tax plan is set to be released next days and after Trump succeeded to raise the debt ceiling.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative. 
During his last ECB Press Conference, President Draghi said that growth forecasts for the Eurozone will keep on the good pace though inflation is doing worse than expected. Growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
Fake breakout of 1.199 was re-absorbed as we thought very probable. Now, if 1.1856 will be clearly violated then we see room down to the next Support area (1.176). In the opposite case, 1.20 area will be definitely violated and we see room up to 1.21 area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral

1st Resistance: 1.1990

2nd Resistance: 1.2080

1st Support: 1.1856

2nd Support: 1.1756

 

EUR

Recent Facts:
7th of May, French ElectionsCentrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections
12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)As Expected
16th of May,  Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic SentimentBetter than Expected
17th of May, Eurozone CPIAs Expected
23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMIBetter than Expected
30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)Worse than Expected
31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected
1st of June, German Manufacturing PMISlightly Better than Expected
8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press ConferenceGDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program
13th of June, French Non-Farm PayrollsBetter than Expected
13th of June, German Zew Economic SentimentWorse than Expected
23rd of June, German Manufacturing PMI Better than ExpectedGerman Services PMI Worse than ExpectedEurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than ExpectedEurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected
26th of June, German Ifo Business ClimateBetter than Expected
29th of June, German CPIBetter than Expected
30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPIGerman Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected
3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMIBetter than Expected
5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail SalesBetter than Expected
18th of July, German ZEW Economic SentimentWorse than Expected
24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMIWorse than Expected
28th of July, German CPIBetter than Expected
31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment RateEurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected
1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment ChangeWorse than Expected
15th of August, German GDP (Preliminary release)Worse than Expected
17th of August, Eurozone CPIAs Expected
22nd of August, German ZEW Economic SentimentWorse than Expected
23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMIBetter than Expected
25th of August, German Ifo Business ClimateBetter than Expected
31st of August, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)German Unemployment Worse than Expected, CPI Better than Expected
1st of September, Manufacturing PMIWorse than Expected
7th of September, ECB Press ConferenceDraghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
13th of September, Eurozone Employment ChangeBetter than Expected
15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade BalanceBetter than Expected
Eyes on today release: Eurozone CPI

USD

Recent Facts:
13th of June, Producer Price IndexCore PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected
14th of June, CPI + Retail SalesWorse than Expected
14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + StatementInterest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)
23rd of June, Manufacturing PMIWorse than Expected
26th of June, Durable Goods OrdersWorse than Expected
28th of June, Pending Home SalesWorse than Expected
29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job MarketGDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected
3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMIBetter than Expected
5th of July, FOMC Minute MeetingU.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019
6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected
7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment ChangeNonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected
13th of July, PPIBetter than Expected
14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPIWorse than Expected
20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexWorse than Expected
25th of July, Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceBetter than Expected
27th of July, Core Durable Goods OrdersWorse than Expected
28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)As Expected
1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMISlightly Worse than Expected
2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment ChangeWorse than Expected
3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIWorse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)
4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment RateJob Market Better than Expected
8th of August, Job OpeningsBetter than Expected
10th of August, PPIWorse than Expected
11th of August, U.S. CPIWorse than Expected
15th of August, U.S. Core Retail SalesBetter than Expected
23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home SalesWorse than Expected
29th of August, CB Consumer ConfidenceBetter than Expected
30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDPADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected
1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rateWorse than Expected
1st of September, ISM ManufacturingBetter than Expected
6th of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIWorse than Expected
13th of September, PPIWorse than Expected
15th of September, Retail SalesWorse than Expected
15th of September, Manufacturing Production + Industrial ProductionWorse than Expected

 

GBP/USD 

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | September 18, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Today BoE Governor Carney is to speak, let’s pay attention to this.
Longer than 1 year ago, Brexit happened and now London is starting to do an analysis about Brexit effects and outcome. – GDP slowed down (it is the Eurozone Slowest growth, even Greece grew more)- High Consumer Price (with freezed wages and salaries, the effect is a widespread social impoverishment)- Hard Brexit was just only a rumor: London is starting to understand that Brexit is a jump into nowhere (especially as far as financial sectors are concerned).
The BoE’s monetary policy committee voted 7-to-2 to leave interest rates at their current record low of 0.25% following its policy meeting, but the bank said in its rate statement that the economy is looking slightly stronger than expected. A majority of officials believe borrowing costs will need to rise in the coming months to bring annual inflation back to its 2% goal. Such a move is likely “over the coming months,” the statement said if the economy performs broadly in line with officials’ expectations.
On the other hand, 5 terroristic attacks in Britain this year and upcoming German elections are undermining the volatile stamina for the GBP bulls.
We think that 1.36 is a definitive very strong Resistance so GBP is overbought now and 1.3460 should be re-tested as GBP/USD current fair value. In the case of upside overshooting continuation, 1.367 Resistance area will probably block the bulls creating a downside correction.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought

1st Resistance: 1.3610

2nd Resistance: 1.3670

1st Support: 1.3460

2nd Support: 1.3362

 

GBP

Recent Facts:
11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate DecisionManufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than ExpectedThe Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount
16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)Higher than Expected
17th of May, UK Job MarketWorse than Expected
18th of May, Retail SalesBetter than Expected
25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)Worse than Expected
1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMISlightly Better than Expected
2nd of June, Construction PMIBetter than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)
5th of June, UK Services PMIWorse than Expected
8th of June, UK General ElectionsBritish Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.
9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing productionWorse than Expected
13th of June, UK CPIHigher than Expected
14th of June, UK Job MarketClaimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected
15th of June, Retail SalesRetail Sales Worse than Expected, 
20th of June, BoE Gov Carney SpeechCarney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.
30th of June, GDPUK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account
3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMIWorse than Expected
4th of July, Construction PMISlightly Worse than Expected
5th of July, Services PMISlightly Worse than Expected
7th of July, Manufacturing ProductionWorse than Expected
12th of July, UK Job MarketBetter than Expected
18th of July, CPIWorse than Expected
20th of July, UK Retail SalesBetter than Expected
26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)As Expected
1st of August, Manufacturing PMIBetter than Expected
2nd of August, Construction PMIWorse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)
3rd of August, Services PMIBetter than Expected
10th of August, Manufacturing ProductionAs Expected
15th of August, UK CPIWorse than Expected
16th of August, UK Job MarketBetter than Expected
17th of August, Retail SalesBetter than Expected
24th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) Worse than Expected
1st of September, Manufacturing PMIBetter than Expected
4th of September, Construction PMIWorse than Expected
5th of September, Services PMIWorse than Expected
8th of September, Trade Balance and Manufacturing ProductionBetter than Expected
12th of September, CPIHigher than Expected
13th of September, Job MarketBetter than Expected
14th of September, BoE Meeting MinutesThe BoE’s monetary policy committee voted 7-to-2 to leave interest rates at their current record low of 0.25% following its policy meeting but the bank said in its rate statement that the economy is looking slightly, so an interest rate hike move is likely “over the coming months” if the economy performs broadly in line with officials’ expectations

 

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | September 18, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Pay attention to RBA Minutes Meeting later today.
Australia reported improved job market and interestingly good home loans data for July, but Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.
Last Australian Manufacturing Index was better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative. 
In the case of a definitive breakout of 0.803 area, then there is room up over 0.804 until 0.81 area. In the opposite case, a re-test in area 0.798 will lead down to the main Support in area 0.792.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral

1st Resistance: 0.8034

2nd Resistance: 0.8130

1st Support: 0.7980

2nd Support: 0.7916

 

AUD

Recent Facts:
4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade BalanceWorse than Expected
9th of May, Australia Retail SalesWorse than Expected
18th of May, Australia Employment ChangeBetter than Expected
24th of May, Australia Construction Work DoneWorse than Expected
24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on ChinaMoody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative
25th of May, OPEC MeetingOPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018
30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House ApprovalsBetter than Expected
1st of June, Australia Retail SalesBetter than Expected
6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and StatementIn the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened
7th of June, Australia GDPBetter than Expected
15th of June, Australia Employment ChangeBetter than Expected (3rd month in a row)
29th of June, HIA New Home SalesBetter than Expected
4th of July, Retail SalesBetter than Expected
4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate DecisionRBA holds Rates at 1.5%
6th of July, Australia Trade BalanceBetter than Expected
11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business ConfidenceHome Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected
12th of July, Westpac Consumer SentimentBetter than Expected
20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment RateEmployment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe SpeechWorse than Expected
3rd of August, Trade BalanceWorse than Expected
4th of August, Australia Retail SalesBetter than Expected
9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home LoansWorse than Expected
17th of August, Employment ChangeBetter than Expected but Full Employment Change negative
30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work DoneBetter than Expected
1st of September, AIG Manufacturing IndexBetter than Expected
6th of September, Australia GDPWorse than Expected
7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail SalesWorse than Expected
14th of September, Employment ChangeBetter than Expected