EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | October 11, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Focus on Fed FOMC Meeting later today.

Trump tax plan, coupled with strong probabilities of a December rate hike (around 80%) are supporting USD.

Very good ISM Non-Manufacturing data from the U.S. Also U.S. Job market and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change confirmed in good uptrend, also U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected.

German Unemployment better than expected and last EU preliminary PMIs surpassed expectations, indicating that economic activity picked up at the end of the third quarter, back to their recent multi-year highs. But last CPI (inflation) data across all the Europe (Germany included) ticked worse than expected while last U.S. GDP and U.S. job market confirmed again better than expected.

Germany’s election showed surging support for a far-right party that left Chancellor Angela Merkel scrambling to form a governing coalition. Building a coalition could take months as the three-way tie-up has not been tested at national level.

Now, a confirmed breakout of 1.175 will likely lead to a test of 1.1655 Support area (as already written previously).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1856
2nd Resistance: 1.1990
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

 

EUR

Recent Facts:

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected

15th of August, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of August, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of August, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

31st of August, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Worse than Expected, CPI Better than Expected

1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

 

USD

Recent Facts:

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected

8th of August, Job Openings
Better than Expected

10th of August, PPI
Worse than Expected

11th of August, U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

15th of August, U.S. Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of August, CB Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDP
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected

1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rate
Worse than Expected

1st of September, ISM Manufacturing
Better than Expected

6th of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of September, PPI
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Manufacturing Production + Industrial Production
Worse than Expected

19th of September, Building Permits
Better than Expected

20th of September, FOMC Statement + FOMC Press Conference
Fed confirmed inflation view, labour market growth and scheduled rate hikes

26th of September, Fed Chair Yellen speech
Federal Reserve to continue gradual interest rate hikes despite uncertainty about the path of inflation. It “would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2%,” she said.

28th of September, U.S. GDP + U.S. job market
Better than Expected

2nd of October, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of October, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI + ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

 

GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | October 11, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Focus on Fed FOMC Meeting later today.

Last UK Manufacturing Production beats expectations.

Sterling recovered as the Office of National Statistics corrected second-quarter unit labor costs to 2.4 percent year-on-year, up from the 1.6 percent announced earlier.

Last UK Services PMI came slightly better than expected, while last Construction PMI hit a 12-month low and last UK Manufacturing PMI also worse than expected.

In the U.S., rising wages stoke inflation expectations despite hurricanes. Furthermore, both ISM Non-Manufacturing and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change confirmed in good uptrend, also U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected.

BoE Governor Carney noted that the majority of the MPC were in agreement that the bank needed to raise rates if the economy stayed on track. UK GDP data ticked down, confirming an ongoing post-Brexit depression in the real conditions of the UK economy.

Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating to Aa2. Outlook to stable after the downgrade. Moody’s sees growth of 1% this year, and doesn’t expect growth to recover to historic trends “over the coming years.”

Important Resistance now around 1.32 area. It will pull price down, at least to 1.3099 Support area. Our main Support remains 1.2980.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3099
2nd Support: 1.2980

 

GBP

Recent Facts:

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of August, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

3rd of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of August, Manufacturing Production
As Expected

15th of August, UK CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of August, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) Worse than Expected

1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of September, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of September, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of September, Trade Balance and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of September, BoE Meeting Minutes
The BoE’s monetary policy committee voted 7-to-2 to leave interest rates at their current record low of 0.25% following its policy meeting but the bank said in its rate statement that the economy is looking slightly, so an interest rate hike move is likely “over the coming months” if the economy performs broadly in line with officials’ expectations

18th of September, Governor Carney Speech at IMF headquarter
De-integration effects of Brexit are likely to be inflationary but any rate hikes are expected to be gradual and limited

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of September, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of October, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of October, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of October, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

 

See above.

 

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | October 11, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Focus on Fed FOMC Meeting later today.

Last Australia Retail Sales change came negative, disappointing economists projections after a strike of good data from the U.S.

Trump tax plan, coupled with strong probabilities of a December rate hike (around 80%) are supporting USD.

Crude Oil prices rebound after a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. Stockpiles.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate steady at a record low 1.50% as expected and signaled to markets that the economy continues to improve. Australia reported that building approvals rose 0.4% on month in August, below the 1.1% gain expected, while private house approvals fell 0.6%, compared to a 1.0% gain in July.

Australia reported improved job market and interestingly good home loans data for July, but Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.

We are Neutral from Bearish as 0.774 represented a strong demand area from where price correcting in a consolidation phase.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680

 

AUD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

 

USD

Recent Facts:

 

See above.