Forex Analysis: EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EURUSD, February 5/2020 | SGT Markets Forex Broker

Eyes to today U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Last German Manufacturing data confirms a recovery from the lows of the end of 2019.

And ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested the review would take around a year. However, it may take longer, and she added: ‘It is over when it is over.’ The bank’s chief declined to say what changes she would like to make to the ECB’s inflation target. Lagarde noted: ‘We will not leave any stone unturned and how we measure inflation is clearly something we need to look at.’

We are Neutral from Bearish. As we wrote, a confirmed breakout of 1.1055 would quickly drag the price down to 1.0980, important Demand Area. And this is what is occurring, so eyes between our First Support (1.106) and our Second Support (1.098 area).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1200
2nd Resistance: 1.1268
1st Support: 1.1055
2nd Support: 1.0980

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

22nd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of September, German Unemployment Change and German CPI (Inflation data)
Better than Expected

16th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

24th of October, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of October, German Unemployment Change
Worse than expected

29th of November, CPI
Higher than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment Change
Worse than expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of September, ADP Nonfarm U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

13th of September, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

1st of October, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

30th of October, GDP
Better than Expected

30th of October, Interest Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee cut its fed funds rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% from a previous range of 1.75% to 2.00%

1st of November, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of November, CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of November, GDP
Better than Expected

6th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

14th of January, CPI
Lower than Expected

30th of January, GDP
As Expected

Eyes to today release: U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

Forex Analysis: GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBPUSD, February 5/2020 | SGT Markets Forex Broker

Sterling weak as Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier laid out opposing visions for the relationship between the two groups post-Brexit. Fears still exist that the U.K. could end the transition period at the end of this year without a trade deal.

Economists currently put the odd of Interest Rate reduction at about 50%. Yet investors and forecasters will be in the dark about the views from agents until the decision is announced, when the accompanying Monetary Policy Report will include a section summarizing the feedback.

British inflation sank unexpectedly to a more than three-year low in December as hotels slashed prices, ramping up expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates as soon as this month.

We are still Overbought. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, First Supply Area is in area 1.336 and after that test a reversal would have occurred (with breakout of 1.30). Now eyes to our second Support, 1.275 Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3362
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2753

GBP

Recent Facts:

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

2nd of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

9th of September, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

10th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of September, CPI
Lower than expected

19th of September, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of September, GDP data
Higher than Expected

2nd of October, Construction PMI
Worse than expected

3rd of October, UK Services PMI data
Worse than expected

10th of October, GDP and Manufacturing Production data
GDP Better than Expected, Manufacturing Worse than expected

15th of October, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of November, BoE Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rate Unchanged but two members of its monetary policy committee voted for a cut, the first time in over a year that the committee has been split

13th of November, CPI
Ticked lower, but still at 1.5%

22nd of November, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Lower than expected

10th of December, GDP data
Worse than expected

12th of December, General Election
Leader of the Conservatory party, largely winning the UK elections, said that Britain would have enough time to strike an agreement with the European Union

19th of December, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

13th of January, Manufacturing Production
Worse than expected

17th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of January, BoE Interest Rate Decision
BoE refrained from cutting interest rates. Policy makers voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark at 0.75%

USD

See above.

 

Forex Analysis: AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUDUSD, February 5/2020 | SGT Markets Forex Broker

Eyes to today U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and to Australia Retail Sales data, later today.

Last Australia CPI (Inflation) data ticked higher than expected. Also, last Australia Employment Change data came bright, over the expectations.

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.8% to 93.4 in January. In December, the index had fallen by 1.9% to 95.1. According to the latest Westpac Report, the bushfires reportedly contributed to the downside. The currently low levels in consumer confidence are consistent with lackluster consumer spending figures.
Despite upward momentum in the equity markets and improved sentiment towards the global economy, all the economic components of the index declined.

China and the U.S. agreed to a phase one trade deal, which could be signed in early January. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that there will be a signing and that the deal is “getting done”.

Last Australia GDP data ticked lower. Australia RBA Board expects inflation to pick up gradually to be close to 2% in 2020 and 2021. The Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support economic growth, full employment and the inflation target over time.

We are Oversold from Overbought. As we expected, test of First Support in area 0.688 failed. In the case of an escalation of the bearish sentiment, we thought probable a re-test below 0.68 important Demand Area and this is occurring right now. Now eyes on the important Demand Area in 0.67 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6710
2nd Support: 0.6630

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

3rd of September, Retail sales
Worse than Expected

18th of September, job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of November, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of December, GDP
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

10th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of January, CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.