EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | July 27, 2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Eyes on U.S. GDP data today.

German Manufacturing data very good, after German ZEW Economic Sentiment data came relevantly below the expectations.

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth.

U.S. Consumer Price Index confirmed the expectations after U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) ticked higher than expected.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

We are overbought from neutral. We considered probable another test around 1.17 area and this happened. First consolidation area: 1.1570.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1567
2nd Support: 1.1490

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected

5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

Eyes on today release: GDP

 

GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | July 27, 2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

UK CPI data ticked down.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

The US Dollar is seeing a soft walkback across the G10 broader market, but the Sterling remains subdued as Brexit concerns keep the Pound on the downside.
Yearly lows for the pair remain close by, and bearish pressure remains taut.

Again a weak UK Manufacturing Production release. On the contrary, UK Construction PMI rose to 53.1 in Jun, bettering expectations of an unchanged report from May’s 52.5. This was the strongest reading in the index since Nov last year.

We are overbought from neutral. We expect a drop back to 1.32, first, and 1.30, finally, and this happened. Next consolidation area could be around 1.3060 Demand area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3060
2nd Support: 1.2880

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

 

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | July 27, 2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Eyes on today U.S. GDP data.

Australia CPI (Inflation data) ticked down. Last Australia Employment Change looked very strong.

U.S. Consumer Price Index confirmed the expectations, after U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) ticked higher than expected.

The recent weakness in the Australian housing market, which has been one of the drivers of an economy that has now grown for 27 years without a downturn, has some economists warning of heightened risks of a recession and even a financial crisis.

A possible trade war between the US and China took a step closer to becoming reality.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped the Meeting Minutes of their latest rate decision, and little of note was there to entice Aussie traders to hit the buy button. The central bank is set to hold steady on rates for the foreseeable future as Australian growth figures continue to miss the mark.

We are overbought from neutral. We consider very probable a new test in 0.73 area for testing a strong Support area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7408
2nd Resistance: 0.7480
1st Support: 0.7339
2nd Support: 0.7301

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.