EUR/USD
German ZEW Economic Sentiment data came relevantly below the expectations.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls rose over expectations but Unemployment Rate increased back to the 4% area of the first semester of this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday cut its 2018 forecast for German GDP growth to 2.2 percent, saying rising protectionism and the threat of a hard Brexit had exposed Europe’s biggest economy to significant short-term risks. “Short-term risks are substantial, as a significant rise in global protectionism, a hard Brexit, or a reassessment of sovereign risk in the euro area, leading to renewed financial stress, could affect Germany’s exports and investment,” it said in a report.
The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.
We are neutral from oversold. We consider probable another test below 1.16 area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1567
2nd Support: 1.1490
EUR
Recent Facts:
7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected
15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected
18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected
19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected
22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)
28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected
29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected
25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary
31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected
2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected
14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected
23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected
14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected
5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected
24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected
14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected
21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)
29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected
4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected
17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected
18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected
27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected
15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected
23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected
1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected
15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)
29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected
10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected
12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected
13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected
27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected
1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish
3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat
14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected
30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected
8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.
14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected
21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected
3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected
5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected
12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected
19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected
19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected
1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected
14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected
27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected
13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected
28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected
2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected
16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected
1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected
4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected
10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected
1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected
27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected
28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected
6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected
GBP/USD
Again a weak UK Manufacturing Production release.
UK Construction PMI rose to 53.1 in Jun, bettering expectations of an unchanged report from May’s 52.5. This was the strongest reading in the index since Nov last year. BoE MPC “hawk” Saunders remarked that UK rates may have to rise faster than markets expect as the UK economy is running out of slack. That suggests he will maintain his recent voting pattern (favouring a rate hike) at the Aug meeting. Later in the week, focus will likely fall on what may become a “back me or sack me” meeting between PM May and her cabinet as they attempt to thrash out a workable Brexit policy.”
Governor M.Carney said that global risks have intensified at his speech in the release of the Boe’s Financial Stability Report.
UK CPI (inflation) as expected while U.S. CPI (inflation) ticked up.
We are neutral from oversold. We expect a drop back to 1.31 area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3060
2nd Support: 1.2880
GBP
Recent Facts:
25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent
10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected
15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected
16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected
8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected
14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected
22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected
2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected
10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected
19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected
26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected
16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected
22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected
2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected
9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected
21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected
22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike
3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected
18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected
1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent
15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected
23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected
24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected
14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected
3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
AUD/USD
U.S. Unemployment Rate increased back to the 4% area of the first semester of this year.
Last Australia GDP ticked up after a row of three months below the expectations.
A possible trade war between the US and China took a step closer to becoming reality.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped the Meeting Minutes of their latest rate decision, and little of note was there to entice Aussie traders to hit the buy button. The central bank is set to hold steady on rates for the foreseeable future as Australian growth figures continue to miss the mark.
Interest rates in the U.S. raised as expected.
The Fed appeared to be content to let inflation run above the 2% target for a “temporary period”, signaling no rush to tighten monetary policy.
We are neutral from oversold. We consider very probable a new test in 0.73 area for testing a strong Support area.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7408
2nd Resistance: 0.7480
1st Support: 0.7339
2nd Support: 0.7301
AUD
Recent Facts:
7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)
29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%
6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected
11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected
12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected
20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected
4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected
17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative
30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected
1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected
7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected
5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected
5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing
6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected
11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens
1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected
6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected
15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected
6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected
25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish
17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected
6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.