Forex Analysis 2019.07.08

08-07-2019 11:14:54
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EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | July 08/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations but Unemployment Rate increasing. U.S. CB Consumer Confidence data ticked down once again.

Government bonds held near multi-year lows on Thursday on bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this month and that other major central banks would embrace looser monetary policy.

Both last Eurozone Services PMI and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ticked up. Eurozone CPI (Inflation), Preliminary release, ticked down.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

 

GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | July 08/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

UK Services PMI data lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.

Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2590
2nd Support: 1.2405

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

 

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | July 08/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, also Building Approvals on the uptick. Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.