Forex Analysis 2019.05.08

08-05-2019 11:09:26
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EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | May 08/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods this week and target hundreds of billions more soon. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

Last Eurozone CPI data ticked higher than analysts expectation.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data and Unemployment Change came better than expected but U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) disappointing.

U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate, cooling investor expectations that the central bank’s next move on policy would be a rate cut rather than a hike.

German Unemployment Change data better than expected.

Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data came very disappointing. A slowdown in Germany and Italy are pulling down euro zone growth.

We are in clear oversold phase. As written, many attempts to regain 1.1370 followed and now we expect to regain that level, first, and then to consolidate around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237 (fake breakout)
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

 

GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | May 08/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data came once again better than expected.

UK Manufacturing PMI on the downbeat. Last UK Services PMI and Construction PMI disappointing expectations, while last UK GDP data ticked higher than expected.

Last UK CPI data ticked lower than expected as well. While last UK GDP data and Manufacturing Production surprisingly on the upbeat.

The legal default, for now, will be for the U.K. to leave the European Union in 11 days with no deal in place.

Now eyes to 1.3362 important Supply Area after the test of 1.29 important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.3460
2nd Resistance: 1.3362
1st Support: 1.3023 (fake breakout)
2nd Support: 1.2880

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

 

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | May 08/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

Australian retailers posted their weakest quarter in seven years.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods this week and target hundreds of billions more soon. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data better than expected also U.S. GDP inched up.

Australia CPI (Inflation measure) ticked down, also both the official and Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in China for the April period missed estimates.

A measure of Australian consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in over a year in March, adding to recent signs of weakness in the economy.

0.719 is a strong Resistance, an important Supply Area and we predicted it would have been broken on the upside, this is gonna happen and this will lead to another test, higher, in area 0.725.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.