Forex Analysis 2019.01.11

11-01-2019 10:21:35
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EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | January 11/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

Although the December jobs report was exceptionally strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February, the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes and Fed Chair Powell reinforced that outlook by saying that while jobs and wage data were strong, they do not raise the Fed’s concern about inflation. Instead, Powell expressed concern about China weakness spilling over to other parts of the world, saying that he feels that the drop in the manufacturing ISM report is worth watching.

German Unemployment better than analysts’ expectations.
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) ticked down.

Now we expect price to test again 1.15 area. If it works again as Support then room up to 1.18 area. In the opposite scenario, we will see EUR/USD down to 1.12 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

 

GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | January 11/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

Eyes to today UK GDP and Manufacturing Production data.

Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

UK service and manufacturing activity accelerated at the end of the year but it is hard to imagine that any breakout will be sustainable until we know the resolution of the Parliament Brexit vote. The debate will be held this coming week followed by a vote the week of January 14. The vote was postponed from December in the hopes that time would allow Prime Minister May to convince more lawmakers to support her plan. So far, it doesn’t seem like she will win the support that she needs and that means Britain will leave the EU on March 29 with no deal – the worst-case scenario for GBP.

We Neutral from Bearish. Test of 1.272 Demand Area is crucial. If a clear breakout will happen, then the next target will be around 1.288 area. And this seems the case.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2715
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2340
2nd Support: 1.2300

GBP

Recent Facts:

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes to today release: GDP and Manufacturing Production data

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

 

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | January 11/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

Australia Retail Sales data better than the forecast.

In Australia, the CBA upgraded its December reading of service-sector activity in Australia. Trade talks between the US and China continue and China does modest concessions in hopes of a deal. The PMI, trade balance and retail sales reports will go a long way in telling us how much the slowdown in China hurt Australia’s economy at the end of the year – if at all. The bottom in AUD/USD seems to be already happening.

Last Australia Employment data contrasted and last GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations. Last Australia Inflation data also ticked lower.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. Now, we are in the opposite excess and, as we wrote, 0.719 will be regained as ground for further bulls, so a consolidation will happen as price will reconquer 0.72 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.