Forex Analysis 2018.12.06

06-12-2018 10:38:27
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EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | December 06/2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Services PMI data in the Eurozone ticked up.

Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) ticked down after German Unemployment release was positive.
Last U.S. GDP data ticked lower.

German Manufacturing PMI data came worse than expected.
German and Eurozone GDP as expected.
Recently U.S. CPI (Inflation) ticked lower.

According to a Reuters poll, a median of analysts’ forecasts show three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00-3.25 percent by end-2019. But the poll also showed economists have increased the probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years to a median 35 percent.

Repeating the ECB’s standard policy guidance, Coeure recently stated that significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to raise inflation back to the bank’s target of almost 2 percent.

Price was lying on a very important Demand Area (1.12 Support) and we expected a bouncing up starting from that precise level (Second Target Resistance: 1.15 area). This just happened but now we are in overbought.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1. 1370 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

 

GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | December 06/2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Last UK Services PMI in freefall (worst data since 2016).

Last U.S. GDP data ticked lower but shadows casted on smooth Brexit deal are starting to impact seriously. The worst-case scenario would be no-deal happening by accident or design.

UK Retail Sales data worse than expected. UK CPI (Inflation) ticked lower than expected too.
UK Job Market Worse than expected again.

EU leaders approved the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc, the Brexit deal will have to pass a vote in the British parliament in early December.

According to a Reuters poll, a median of analysts’ forecasts show three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00-3.25 percent by end-2019. But the poll also showed economists have increased the probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years to a median 35 percent.

We are Bearish from Neutral. Test of 1.2715 Demand Area is crucial. If a clear breakout happens, then next target will be 1.259 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

 

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | December 06/2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Last Australia GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged at a record low Tuesday as it gauges the impact of a housing market slowdown on the nation’s economy. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

Last Australia Inflation data ticked lower.
Australia New Home Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure still on the downbeat. Last Australia Employment Change finally on the upbeat.

Richard Clarida, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that interest rates were near neutral, but indicated that a December rate hike is still possible.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. First target 0.73, second target 0.725.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7408
2nd Resistance: 0.7480
1st Support: 0.7301
2nd Support: 0.7250

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.