Forex Analysis 2018.11.08

08-11-2018 14:55:50
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EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | November 08/2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Ears out to U.S. Fed FOMC Interest Rate Statement.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls far above expectations.

Eurozone CPI ticked higher but German Job Market and Eurozone GDP data came worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data quite disappointing. Last U.S. CPI (Inflation) data also ticked lower.
The U.S. Commerce Department’s report on third-quarter gross domestic product was ok but there’s one part of the report that should raise some red flags. Residential investment fell 4 percent, marking the third straight quarterly decline. That hasn’t happened since late 2008 and early 2009.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel would not seek re-election as head of her CDU party. This is not positive for the EUR currency.

Repeating the ECB’s standard policy guidance, Coeure recently stated that significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to raise inflation back to the bank’s target of almost 2 percent.

Now price is lying on a very important Demand Area (1.137 Support) and we expected a bouncing up starting from that precise level (First Target Resistance: 1.15 area).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1490
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1370
2nd Support: 1.1237

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

 

GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | November 08/2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Ears out to U.S. Fed FOMC Interest Rate Statement.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls far above expectations.

UK Services PMI dropped below expectations. Last UK Manufacturing PMI data were disappointing (2-years low).

Last UK CPI (Inflation) data ticked below 2.5%. UK Job Market data disappointing. Last U.S. Retail Sales data quite disappointing too. Last UK Manufacturing PMI and UK GDP data came worse than expected. Only last UK Retail Sales data were stronger than expected.

Britain has raised its official forecast for economic growth in 2019 while the outlook for subsequent years was unchanged or slightly higher. The Country’s official budget forecasters now expect gross domestic product will grow by 1.6 percent in 2019, compared with a forecast of 1.3 percent made in March.

Now 1.28 level will be under attack again. And we expected prices to fall down to 1.26 important Demand Area before finding the bulls carpet for a buoyance. Now we are sitting in a clearly overbought zone: correction down to 1.30 will happen soon.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

 

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | November 08/2018 | sgtmarkets.com | SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Ears out to U.S. Fed FOMC Interest Rate Statement.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls far above expectations.

Australia Retail Sales data came worse than expected. Last Australia Inflation data ticked lower. Also Australia Building Approvals below analysts’ expectations. Last Australia Job Market data disappointing.

Australia’s central bank said a weaker currency is likely helping economic growth, while reinforcing its message that interest rates will remain unchanged, according to minutes of its last policy meeting.

Recently the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative” to describe its stance on monetary policy.

The new US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and retaliatory China tariffs on $60 billion of US products took effect on Monday and was seen as one of the key factors weighing on the China-proxy Australian Dollar.

0.73 strong resistance worked perfectly and rejected bulls down to 0.72 back again. We are still stuck within in a sideway channel: bottom is 0.71, top is 0.74 area. We expected first a downside exhaustion move, and then prices to bounce towards our first Target Resistance: 0.72 Area. Now we are clearly in overbought area, and 0.72 levels will be tested again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7044
2nd Support: 0.6900

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.