Forex Overview – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD | April 21, 2017

21-04-2017 09:06:52
Back to Market News

Facebooktwittergoogle_plus

Forex Analysis: EUR/USD

Technical Analysis EUR/USD | April 21, 2017

Eurozone CPI release said nothing really on the upbeat. German ZEW Economic Sentiment was very good but the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in French Elections is becoming a central topic.

The dollar is in clear oversold area. We know that President Trump likes this situation, but as a matter of fact, talking about growth, job creation and domestic demand, U.S. economy is the most resilient compared to that of EU and UK. The market is factoring in recent developments regarding North Korea and Syria.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise U.S. interest rates gradually are aimed at sustaining full employment and near-2-percent inflation without letting the economy overheat.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.072 area is a very important resistance, we exclude a breakout of that barrier in the short-term. Now we are consolidating around 1.07 in sideways market movements and in 1.072 area there is a very important resistance. Please, consider also that 1.062 area is a very weak support, a breach of that level would extend the fall down to our first support, which is 1.056.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0724
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0560
2nd Support: 1.0506

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected
Eyes on today release: French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

 

Forex Analysis: GBP/USD

Technical Analysis GBP/USD | April 21, 2017

Eyes on today UK Retail Sales release.

Sterling jumped after recovering losses Tuesday as UK PM called for early general elections on June 8. Theresa May said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit talks and beyond.

UK Job Market with stable Unemployment Rate but toughly increasing Job Claimants.
UK Inflation Data on the upbeat while last Manufacturing Production data and Trade Balance were below expectations.

UK Services PMI seen back to 55, far better than the 53.3 of previous month, while UK Manufacturing PMI dropped below previous one, for the second time in a row. UK GDP YoY was worse than Expected.
British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Now market is ranging between 1.253 and 1.283 levels, in general overbought setup waiting for the news and events scheduled next days which we think will push price down to 1.26 back again.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2380

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: UK Retail Sales

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

 

Forex Analysis: AUD/USD

Technical Analysis AUD/USD | April 21, 2017

Last RBA Meeting Minutes showed caution and dovish tone.

New Zealand Consumer Price Index revealed a higher than expected inflation. China Industrial Production, far above expectations, drove YoY GDP to +6.9% (better than +6.8% Expectations).

Australia Employment Change growing higher than expected.

Weeks ago Australia’s central bank held steady as expected in its latest interest rate decision: “The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment”.

Last reading of China Inflation data is lower than Expected with Chinese factory activity growing at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, our important resistance around 0.757 area worked and next stop will be 0.746 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7570
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7460
2nd Support: 0.7425

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected