Economic News 2018.01.31

 

EXPLENATION OF THE ECONOMIC NEWS

1. German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.

2. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

3. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

4. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

5. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected. If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

6. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes. A more dovish than expected statement could be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a more hawkish than expected statement could be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

7. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.